Year to date there has been a 19% appreciation for the “TLT” an ETF that holds ten year Treasuries versus 11.8% for the SP500. Bonds beat stocks over a long run until in 2013 when the stock market had its best year ever, after adjusting for inflation and for a fluke in 1958. Usually when the stock market has appreciated with no real corrections for 38 months it is due for a 20% correction. If that occurs then the long term performance of stocks would be roughly equal to bonds. Quantitative Easing was tried with higher dose in QEIII in September, 2012 until last month and that program has ended. Without it stocks may go down at
The employment cost index is up 3% annualized in the past half year. Does that mean workers are getting inflation causing raises? Will this make bond prices go down?