Monthly Archives: December 2014

Possible End of Great 30 Year Bond Bull Market?

In yesterday’s post I mentioned an intriguing article by Doug Kass where he expected things to get worse in the EU in 2015 and that the crisis would result in a loss of confidence in the EU’s Central Bank led by Draghi which would result in rising global interest rates. This goes against my theory that a crisis creates a crowding-in phenomena where those who seek safe assets have no chose but to overcrowd into the lifeboats of sovereign debt issued by “print & pay” G7 countries that issue debt in their own currencies and the overcrowding ironically makes yields go lower during a crisis. Perhaps what will happen is that a few healthy northern members of the EU will

2017-01-10T23:33:29-08:00December 31st, 2014|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Possible End of Great 30 Year Bond Bull Market?

Dollar’s Strength May Trigger Global Recession

The continued rise in the value of the dollar will make it harder for the EM countries to repay $6 Trillion of dollar based debt. The expected slowdown in China’s debt fueled boom will also slow down the global economy. Some experts expect that the rising dollar will trigger a problem similar to the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis but this time EM is a much larger share , about half, of the world economy. This time the U.S. economy is not as robust as it was in 1997 and is more integrated with the rest of the world, so a foreign crash will affect the U.S. more than in 1997. Since U.S. rates are already low then the Federal

2017-01-10T23:33:30-08:00December 17th, 2014|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Dollar’s Strength May Trigger Global Recession