Monthly Archives: February 2020

Dramatic Stock Crash: What Next?

       This week's stock market crash of over 10% is one of the four worst weeks since WWII for stocks. The others were Black Monday 1987, Dot-com bubble in 2000, and the GFC crash of 2008, which was the worst. The 2000 bubble was mainly in tech stocks while the low tech companies were not that badly overpriced, so that crash was less of a comprehensive crisis. The 1987 crash occurred when debt levels were much lower and demographics more favorable. The 2008 banking crash was mainly about financial companies that were stuck with a negative net worth because they made bubble-like loans to the housing bubble, so they were able to respond to central bank QE stimulus and suspension

2020-02-28T16:41:24-08:00February 28th, 2020|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Dramatic Stock Crash: What Next?

Job Situation Worsens Even Though BLS Says More Were Hired

   The monthly BLS employment report released today said 225k new jobs were created, but it included the hypothetical Birth-Death model that added 141k hypothetical jobs. Thus the net true growth was 84k, less than the 100k a month needed to offset population growth. Therefor jobs actually declined on a relative basis. The Birth-Death model is an allowance for employers to take plenty of time to log in hiring of new employees. In reality with today’s strict laws about fast, accurate payroll tax withholding and the requirements to verify that new employees are not illegal aliens there is no need for the Birth-Death model, thus its use substantially distorts the data. Manufacturing jobs, a source of good paying, “real” jobs

2020-02-07T14:29:21-08:00February 7th, 2020|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Job Situation Worsens Even Though BLS Says More Were Hired