gold

Gold Investing: The Hidden Factors

    Should people buy gold to get protection from inflation? The increasing use of Federal Reserve money printing because of the “Repo” crisis implies that the Fed will accidentally trigger a repeat of the terrible inflation of the 1970’s. During that era investors were able to protect themselves by holding short term bonds because the yields kept up with inflation (when a short term bond matured the proceeds could be reinvested at higher rates as inflation rose). But in the post-2008 post-GFC era rates have been artificially low and could be held down to zero by the Fed. Thus investors would not be able to replicate the benefits of short term bonds during a repeat of the 1970’s level of

2020-01-15T12:26:11-08:00January 15th, 2020|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Gold Investing: The Hidden Factors

Should Bearish Investors Avoid Gold and Treasuries?

    Have bearish investors gotten ahead of themselves regarding buying gold and Treasuries? One strategy some people (who are bearish about stocks) use is to buy gold and long-term Treasuries with the expectation that they will go up in value when stocks crash.  The problem is that if too many stock market bears did this then they would make the price of gold and bonds too high to make this strategy succeed. Gold should only be roughly 1,000 based on its long-term pattern of appreciating in line with CPI inflation; instead it has been around $1,500. Perhaps the $500 “excess” price is like a long-term put on stocks? If a repeat of the crash of 2008 occurs perhaps gold will

2019-11-08T17:58:25-08:00November 8th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Should Bearish Investors Avoid Gold and Treasuries?

Using Bonds, and Gold To Short-Sell Stocks

When stocks crash, bond yields may go down, thus increasing bond prices. If yields are very low then investors may feel they have nothing to lose by owning gold, which has no yield, thus in a stock crash both gold prices and bond prices may rise together. If someone is bearish about stocks then one may decide to buy gold and bonds so as to benefit from a stock crash. It is far less risky to own unlevered gold and bonds than short-selling stocks and there are minimal carrying charges for gold and none for bonds. However sometimes bond investors are early to the party in terms of wanting to be bearish about stocks. The bond market tends to anticipate

2019-10-01T17:35:03-07:00October 1st, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Using Bonds, and Gold To Short-Sell Stocks

Investing in Gold: The Paradigms Have Changed

    Traditionally gold has tracked the inflation rate, in a hugely lumpy manner, until the great stock crash of 2008. Based on its historical behavior of correlating with inflation it should only be about $800 or $1,000 an ounce; instead it trades at $1,513. The theoretical reason for the 50% premium over hypothetical intrinsic value is that this is like a call option on the future: what if future inflation is much worse, thus justifying a high price for gold today?     The reason to stop using the old paradigm that gold simply tracks the CPI inflation index and instead start viewing gold differently, is that CPI or PCE inflation indexes are something based on lifestyles of the masses; by

2019-08-07T16:39:27-07:00August 7th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Investing in Gold: The Paradigms Have Changed

Surprise Jobs Increase is Misleading

   The headline new employment rose 224,000 last month, far in excess of the 171,000 three month average. The global economy is reducing its economic activity, so the increase in domestic jobs looks suspicious. Half the jobs gain came from the hypothetical birth-death model. Employment growth in five months from actual data from companies (not from the birth-death model) has been zero. Multiple job holders increased 301,000, if not for them, the jobs number would have been negative. Almost 60% of Household survey employment growth was from self-employed people. So these could be starving rookie independent contractor sales reps, not people with real jobs. The age 25-55 prime aged sector only increased by 29,000 last month and for the past

2019-07-05T17:45:04-07:00July 5th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Surprise Jobs Increase is Misleading

Stocks Crashed Today: Should You Buy Gold?

  Stocks crashed hard today, the NASDAQ was down 4.4%, the most in 7 years. Yet gold, which many people think is a hedge, only went up 0.22%. I believe the intrinsic value of gold, based on inflation indexes, is roughly $800, some $436 below today’s price of 1,236. Thus in theory gold should first need to drop to a “cleansing crash” bottoming out price of $800 and then later, during a recession, a new round of inflationary stimulus will make it go up. To generate massive inflation society would first need to go through a dramatic, deep recession that would trigger bipartisan demands for aggressive reflation. Thus it is way too early in the cycle for gold to go

2018-10-24T14:42:00-07:00October 24th, 2018|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Stocks Crashed Today: Should You Buy Gold?

Will Gold Go Much Higher?

Based on logic, extrapolating for its correlation with inflation, the intrinsic value of gold may be roughly $700 to $800 or perhaps as high as $1,000. It recently has traded in the $1,078 to $1,280 range. Those observations are based on data before the recent unprecedented extremes of global Quantitative Easing and negative interest rates. Using logic one might project that QE is harmless, even deflationary so those extra dollars created by QE won’t be used to chase after gold and thus gold will slowly drift down to the $700 target. A new way of thinking is that behavioral economics should also be considered in addition to extrapolating from CPI’s long term relationship with gold. If central banks throughout the

2016-04-25T16:47:36-07:00April 25th, 2016|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Will Gold Go Much Higher?