inflation

Drama in Bond Market: What is Happening?

    The past 10 days since the weekend of Saturday, March 7th, when Saudi Arabia started a severe oil price war, have had some of the most dramatic financial market movements ever, even more shocking than a few parts of the 1929 and 2008 crashes. What is particularly unusual is the end of the pattern where bond prices rise when stock prices fall. Instead bond and stock prices both fell together recently by significant amounts. This is because stocks are still significantly overpriced and need to go down much more to reach fair value. Bonds have been hurt by the politicians’ promises of massive deficit fueled stimulation to try and offset the damage caused by Corona Virus quarantine, etc. There

2020-03-18T18:31:28-07:00March 18th, 2020|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Drama in Bond Market: What is Happening?

Gold Investing: The Hidden Factors

    Should people buy gold to get protection from inflation? The increasing use of Federal Reserve money printing because of the “Repo” crisis implies that the Fed will accidentally trigger a repeat of the terrible inflation of the 1970’s. During that era investors were able to protect themselves by holding short term bonds because the yields kept up with inflation (when a short term bond matured the proceeds could be reinvested at higher rates as inflation rose). But in the post-2008 post-GFC era rates have been artificially low and could be held down to zero by the Fed. Thus investors would not be able to replicate the benefits of short term bonds during a repeat of the 1970’s level of

2020-01-15T12:26:11-08:00January 15th, 2020|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Gold Investing: The Hidden Factors

Payroll Report Shows Shrinking Economy

    Today’s Payroll Report had 145k new jobs, but according to David Rosenberg, when adjusting for downward revisions and BLS Birth-Death model of jobs, employment grew by 79k. In my opinion we need 100k new jobs a month to keep up with population growth, thus by using this as an adjustment for population growth, when subtracted from the 79k figure, jobs actually had a negative growth of 21k last month. The bond market cut the 10 year Treasury yield by 4 bps, implying that the economy is cooling.     The dominant paradigm of the past 30 years is the loss of good paying blue collar jobs due to globalization where the jobs are transferred to low wage EM countries where

2020-01-10T17:32:41-08:00January 10th, 2020|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Payroll Report Shows Shrinking Economy

Huge Increase in Jobs: Are Bonds Doomed?

   Today’s monthly BLS employment report had a huge surprise 266k increase in jobs. Normally this would be inflationary, thus ruining the value of bonds. Yet the yield on the ten year Treasury rose only 3 basis points (that’s 3/100ths of a percent) to 1.83%. Gold went down 1%, indicating the market doesn’t believe the jobs increase is inflationary.     The key to inflation is when banks lend money that increases the money supply, causing inflation. (Also it can be caused by the central bank monetizing the debt, which is not the case right now, although it could be in future decades. QE as done by most countries is not true “spendable” debt monetization.) To lend money the bank examines

2019-12-06T09:03:40-08:00December 6th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Huge Increase in Jobs: Are Bonds Doomed?

No Inflation in the Employment Report

     The BLS Payroll Report was issued today showing 136,000 new jobs. Of this perhaps 100,000 are needed for population increase, thus the real net gain was about 36,000 which is almost nothing out of a work force (total seeking or holding jobs) of 160 million. Job growth is not occurring in prime aged males, thus risk that growth is in low paid jobs held by other groups; growth of low wage jobs not inflationary at this point because these job increases mostly went to high school drop outs. The least skilled sector of society have many problems like no reserves, no 24 month job history, bad credit, etc. so they can’t qualify for an A paper loan that increases

2019-10-04T08:57:06-07:00October 4th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on No Inflation in the Employment Report

Will Bonds Perform the Same as in the 1970’s Inflation Era?

   During the 1970’s there was a significant increase in inflation in the US and the UK which made interest rates rise, thus damaging long term bonds. Gold’s price rose during the 1970’s and was the best asset during that era. Stocks spent the inflationary era of 1966 to 1982 going down 50% and then their prices returned to their starting points after a 16 year bear market, so on a nominal price return basis investors made no gains, however they did get dividends. Could this time be different where yields are repressed by central banks and not allowed to rise in tandem with inflation? There was a precedent for that in the UK in the 1970’s the real rate

2019-07-12T16:11:06-07:00July 12th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Will Bonds Perform the Same as in the 1970’s Inflation Era?

Will The U.S. Become a Bankrupt Banana Republic?

   Looking 30 years ahead the growing federal deficit as forecast by a Congressional agency implies the U.S. will become a Banana republic with high interest rates and an unaffordable gigantic budget deficit. Since people may become alert to this and take steps ahead of time to overcome the problem then I expect the following things to occur: * Defense spending greatly reduced, resulting in less global stability and greater flight capital into the US and similar countries. The increased flight capital puts downward pressure on interest rates. * Social Security starting age raised to 72, forcing more workers to delay their retirement, creating a surplus of job seekers, which is deflationary. * Medicare and Medicaid spending reduced through new

2019-06-26T17:52:47-07:00June 26th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Will The U.S. Become a Bankrupt Banana Republic?

Will Inflation Return?

     Economist Mohamed El Erian wrote that inflation may increase once cost cuts from the gig economy (Uber, Amazon, etc.) have been maxed out and the supply of unemployed people dries up, and corporations get more oligopolistic. I disagree, I believe: The dominant paradigm of the era is cheap EM labor undermining Developed countries resulting in unemployment, foreclosures, low growth in Developed countries. This force is far more powerful than the inflationary force suggested by Mohamed El-Erian. The fundamentals of EM countries are export subsidies, and excess production funded by local banks under political orders to loan money to companies that are not financially sound, so as to create make-work jobs, etc. Ironically as the trade dispute with China acts

2019-05-22T17:25:26-07:00May 22nd, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Will Inflation Return?

Low Unemployment Yet Declining Interest Rates: Why?

     The Employment report was released today by the BLS. The unemployment rate dropped to a very low percentage of 3.6%, the lowest in 50 years. But factory jobs growth stalled this year. Manufacturing and mining produced the growth of GDP in 2017 and 2018 and now that has stalled. Factory jobs in April declined by 4,000. These good paying jobs are worth more in terms of stimulation and growth than a low wage, entry-level fast food job. The Labor Force Participation Rate has been stuck near 63%, but in 2007 before the crash, it was 66%, which is 4.8% (as a percent of a percent) less than in 2007. If these missing workers reported to the government that they

2019-05-03T15:40:47-07:00May 3rd, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Low Unemployment Yet Declining Interest Rates: Why?

Debt Crisis: Will High Interest Rates Occur?

   Yesterday bond guru Jeff Gundlach gave a scary lecture, warning about the danger of rising federal deficits which in turn could trigger a decline in the value of the dollar and a significant rise in interest rates. I disagree. I lived through the scary inflationary 1970’s when some yields hit 21% in 1981 and inflation hit 14%. Many frightening things happened in the 1970’s where it was common for people to worry that we were doomed, but eventually inflation was brought under control and the economy grew out of its problems. First, the recent contribution to the rising deficit is the Trump tax cut signed on 12-22-2017. But this is a temporary law constrained by the ten year time

2019-03-13T14:24:55-07:00March 13th, 2019|mayflowercapital blog|Comments Off on Debt Crisis: Will High Interest Rates Occur?